Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.013802 0.015627 0.017607 0.019914 0.022530 0.025405 0.028807
2025-07-13 0.011197 0.013770 0.016801 0.020638 0.025371 0.031026 0.038308
2025-07-20 0.009703 0.012624 0.016264 0.021140 0.027513 0.035579 0.046591
2025-07-27 0.008713 0.011871 0.015993 0.021775 0.029703 0.040220 0.055292
2025-08-03 0.007690 0.010902 0.015262 0.021632 0.030730 0.043306 0.062098
2025-08-10 0.006912 0.010152 0.014711 0.021614 0.031844 0.046515 0.069280
2025-08-17 0.006168 0.009355 0.013987 0.021233 0.032339 0.048809 0.075261
2025-08-24 0.005706 0.008918 0.013728 0.021486 0.033753 0.052525 0.083662
2025-08-31 0.005213 0.008377 0.013250 0.021334 0.034497 0.055235 0.090685
2025-09-07 0.004927 0.008129 0.013193 0.021824 0.036276 0.059686 0.100871
2025-09-14 0.004431 0.007493 0.012455 0.021128 0.036029 0.060804 0.105572
2025-09-21 0.004075 0.007055 0.011999 0.020852 0.036443 0.063019 0.112293
2025-09-28 0.003669 0.006501 0.011311 0.020132 0.036056 0.063879 0.116808
2025-10-05 0.003542 0.006424 0.011436 0.020850 0.038273 0.069483 0.130409
2025-10-12 0.003392 0.006292 0.011448 0.021359 0.040141 0.074601 0.143560
2025-10-19 0.003274 0.006205 0.011532 0.022001 0.042303 0.080425 0.158572
2025-10-26 0.003058 0.005916 0.011217 0.021856 0.042945 0.083424 0.168326
2025-11-02 0.002878 0.005679 0.010979 0.021838 0.043823 0.086937 0.179402
2025-11-09 0.002670 0.005369 0.010575 0.021453 0.043932 0.088928 0.187522
2025-11-16 0.002552 0.005230 0.010494 0.021708 0.045355 0.093665 0.201800
2025-11-23 0.002400 0.005007 0.010226 0.021554 0.045912 0.096660 0.212604
2025-11-30 0.002325 0.004939 0.010267 0.022050 0.047882 0.102765 0.230753
2025-12-07 0.002139 0.004621 0.009767 0.021346 0.047195 0.103131 0.236098